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The greatest essay writing service reviews are based mostly on actual experience. Weâll listing few steps on how to find the best essay writing service reviews. Its design and the general provide grew with the growing needs of consumers. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-21077069544641306262020-06-02T18:09:00.001-07:002020-06-02T18:09:02.465-07:00Security Camera Individuals Feel It Interfere With Their Privacyeras - 550 WordsNeed Of Security Camera Because Individuals Feel It Interfere With Their Privacyeras (Essay Sample) Content: Name of StudentInstructors nameCourseDateAre security cameras an invasion of privacy?In many countries, the use of security camera has become a common phenomenon and the usage in the security reason has raised a debate on the privacy invasion in the todays society (Bowyer, 18). The way of people lives have been affected by the use of CCTV in surveillance. Currently, security cameras are used in public places apart from high-security places such as banks. This has led to security camera invasion of the privacy in the recent years. Many individuals resist that the surveillance video is a steady privacy invasion. For confidentiality maintenance, security cameras should be avoided in the private affairs of people. Moreover, for prevention of crime and certain areas monitoring, it should be used.The threat to personal privacy by security cameras is a major issue. Through the recording of video without the knowledge of an individual is invading the privacy of that person. The main reasons for a security camera are to monitor, however, people use it for the recording videos and store them which it comes to the public without individuals knowledge. The video being watched by a group of people behind the computer when the security camera is taking the live videos is also privacy raid. It angers many people. The feeling of uncomfortable of people when in malls, parking lot or other shopping centers when one wants to change or dress in a cloth, he/she feels being watched. Although the people who are entitled to watch the footage from security camera are professional, some of the people feel uneasy when they are being watched secretly somewhere.On the other hand, the sense of security to people is assured when there are live recording and monitoring of videos via security camera which acts as preventive measures to the crime. The surveillance cameras are important in restriction of crime which is a fact. The advantages of the use of the security cameras a re helping the security officer to catch the criminals on time thus decreasing the rate of crimes.The criminals will be deterrent and the society will be made safer for all people if security cameras are used appropriately. Nevertheless, systems of CCTV is not guaranteed to stop crime from happening. This is evident in areas with many security cameras, the crime rate is also high. The determination of a person to commit a crime will do it in a blind spot of a camera. The security cameras sometimes are put there to give people false hope on how a ... beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-68379672216618137122020-05-16T22:05:00.001-07:002020-05-16T22:05:04.536-07:00What is Deviance Essay - 1646 Words Deviance can be defined as an absence of conformity to the social norm. Not all deviant behavior is necessarily illegal or harmful to individuals, these behaviors can range from standing in anotherââ¬â¢s personal space to murdering another individual. In some cases, it can be looked upon as a positive change or a unique and favorable act. Although, considered deviant because it is not the social norm, it still can have a very positive social aspect or lead to social change. Culture and the societies within these cultures have a significant impact on what is considered deviant and what is acceptable or even lawful behavior. The degree of deviance is measured by societyââ¬â¢s reaction towards the action and the lawful sanctions that may takeâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Abnormal behavior in one society appears normal in the other society (Nairne, 426). Deviance is weighed by the societyââ¬â¢s reactions to the particular behavior, also it is measured by the societyââ¬â ¢s way of life so that it defines the unwelcoming behavior. It ignores the social order and some organizations believe, the reality in society. The violation of the social norm can be meant to be utilized as a way of sustaining power, position, and influence of a specific group of people or organizations. In most cultures, the idea of deviance is based on the values, deeds, and beliefs that are achieved through interaction among people that have influence in the society and from the understanding that culture is passed on from member to member. Societies are also comprised of the subculture and the culture itself. The huge cultural forces depict what deeds are appreciated and which are unaccepted or discouraged. On the other hand, the subculture in a certain setting creates a resistance to the dominating culture and in doing so, they give a hand in the behavior that violates the large culture social norms. Therefore, the deviation from the cultural norms can be attributed to the social classes and financial classes. For example, prostitution in regions of the developing world is deviant in most cultures, however poverty pre ssure pushes young girls toward it for survival. Another reason deviant people take aShow MoreRelatedDeviance : What Is Deviance?1764 Words à |à 8 PagesWhat is Deviance? Introduction Sociologists have discussed topics that affect our society for a long time. It follows that scholars in the field can gain knowledge by reviewing previous publications on different subjects. One topic that interests sociologists is deviance. This owes to the reality those scholars such as Stuber et al., (2008) and Andersen et al., (2008) made publications on the topic in question. What is deviance? The term deviance identifies an unacceptable or odd behavior withinRead MoreWhat is Deviance?847 Words à |à 4 PagesDeviance is defined as actions or behaviors that violate socials norms. In turn the concept of deviance is dependent on the social observation and perception. ââ¬Å"By itââ¬â¢s very nature, the constructionism through which people define and interpret actions or appearances is always ââ¬Å"social.â⬠â⬠(Henry, 2009 , p. 6) Oneââ¬â¢s perception of a situation may be completely different from another depending on cultural and social factors. The way someone talks, walks, dresses, and holds themselves are all factors thatRead MoreWhat Causes Deviance And What Is The Definition Of Deviance859 Words à |à 4 PagesIn the field of sociology there are various competing theories that attempt to determine what causes deviance and what is the definition of deviance. In an effort to explain why gang membership exists in todayââ¬â¢s society, there is one theory that stands out from the rest: Sutherlandââ¬â¢s differential association. Sutherlandââ¬â¢s differential association theory explains deviant behavior as something that is ââ¬Å"learned through associationsâ⬠rather than solely based upon the community that one is fostered inRead MoreWhat Deviance Is Wrong?1654 Words à |à 7 PagesComing into this class I thought I had a clear understanding for what deviance was. I am half way through undergrad and criminology and sociology are my majors for crying out loud I should know what deviance is. But could I be anymore wrong. My d efinition at the beginning of the course was someone who goes against your typical norms. They donââ¬â¢t stick to the status quo. A deviant person relates to criminals who openly break laws, and those who break social norms such as not getting married. Now thatRead MoreChapter 7. 7.1 What Is Deviance?. Deviance ââ¬â Behavior That1447 Words à |à 6 PagesChapter 7 7.1 What is Deviance? Deviance ââ¬â behavior that departs from societal or group norms Crime ââ¬â an action or omission that constitutes an offense that may be prosecuted by the state and is punishable by law Social Control ââ¬â consists of the forces and processes that encourage conformity, including: self control, informal and formal control Criminal Justice System ââ¬â the organizations - police, courts, and prison officials - that respond to alleged violations of the law The Biological ContextRead MoreWhat Deviance Is Socially Constructed Essay1339 Words à |à 6 PagesQuestion 1 ââ¬â Explain what deviance is socially constructed means. Discuss 2 types of positive deviance and 2 types of negative deviance which are socially constructed in the United States. Provide examples of each. Deviance is socially constructed because it is defined and outlined firmly by societyââ¬â¢s norms. As a result, a deviant act in one society may not be considered deviant within a different society. Societies define themselves through the shared common values of the individuals and in orderRead MoreWhat Deviance Is Today s Society Essay1081 Words à |à 5 PagesWhat defines deviance in todayââ¬â¢s society? Is it the abnormal things that people donââ¬â¢t usually do or is it just criminal behavior? Deviance has brought up many questions on what could be defined as it. Deviance is usually shaped by society. It can be defined as the violation of established contextual, cultural, or social norms, whether folkways, mores, or codified law (OpenStax 142). Sociologist want to see why deviance has so many different areas and how it effects a group in a society. For exampleRead MoreExplain why is it important to analyse deviance in society. Using examples to illustrate your answer, d iscuss what such an analysis can tell us about the social and political implications of deviance.1365 Words à |à 5 PagesThe expression, deviance draws reference to frown upon behaviour in a social context; the breach of various concerted norm that generally exist in a community or in society (Newman 2004). Some types of deviance are determined by criminal law, others by social standards, morality, the expectations of certain social groups, the welfare system or the medical vocation (Roach-anleu 2003).It is subjective to classify what is regarded as deviant since norms and values vary across nations and culture. VariousRead MorePositive Functions of Deviance1641 Words à |à 7 Pageshear of the word ââ¬Å"devianceâ⬠, what we immediately think of is something that is negative, something you would not want to be associated with, that is, we think of universally unaccepted things like murder and rape, or we think of the disabled or blind man begging at the street corner. As a result we view deviance as something that should be removed from society and once society becomes free of deviance, it becomes healthy and close to perfect. According to Aggleton (1987: 7), ââ¬Å"deviance could be definedRead MoreEssay about Social Deviance1286 Words à |à 6 PagesSocial Deviance Social deviance is a term that refers to forms of behavior and qualities of persons that others in society devalue and discredit. So what exactly is deviance? In this essay we are concerned with social deviance, not physiological deviations from the expected norm. In general, any behavior that does not conform to social norms is deviance; that is behavior that violates significant social norms and is disapproved of by a large number of people as a result. For societies beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-31510337797213571792020-05-06T18:28:00.001-07:002020-05-06T18:28:36.302-07:00Jane Austens Sense and Sensibility Comparing the... Elinor vs. Marianne Compare-contrast essay Jane Austens 1811 novel Sense and Sensibility puts across an account involving two English sisters who come across a series of hardships in their endeavor to find their personal identities in a relatively hostile environment. Elinor and Marianne Dashwood are forced to leave their home, the estate at Norland Park, consequent to their fathers death. The two experience economic problems and come to see the world with different eyes as they move in a small house and as they interact with people who are primarily motivated by finances. Even though the two sisters have diverging personalities, they go through similar experiences and they come to have similar perceptions of society. From the very first part of the novel readers are presented with the general atmosphere in England during the late eighteenth century. Women are discriminated and men come to inherit property belonging to their tutors. Men were typically provided with inheritances coming from their mothers and fathers alike. Conditions involving Elinor and Marianne were even more critical, as even though their brother inherited a significant fortune from his mother and his wife was expecting an inheritance from her mother, the two sisters depended on Norland Park. The moment when their father died was particularly problematic for them, as they became unwanted guests in the place that they previously considered home. The two sisters are practically influenced in takingShow MoreRelatedEssay on An Introduction to Sense and Sensibility1320 Words à |à 6 PagesJane Austenââ¬â¢s novel Sense and Sensibility follows the lives of two sisters, Elinor and Marianne Dashwood, as they face the perils of findi ng love. In the novel, Elinor seems to be the embodiment of sense with her rationality and thoughtfulness, while her sister, Marianne, seems to symbolize sensibility. Marianne is incredibly emotional and wildly romantic. Although the novel seems to closely attach the sisters to these personifications, it is shown at the beginning of the novel that Elinor and MarianneRead More Mothers in Jane Austens Sense and Sensibility Essay1517 Words à |à 7 PagesMothers in Jane Austens Sense and Sensibility à à à I can no more forget it, than a mother can forget her suckling child. Jane Austen wrote these words about her novel, Sense and Sensibility, in a letter to her sister Cassandra in 1811. Such a maternal feeling in Austen is interesting to note, particularly because any reader of hers is well aware of a lack of mothers in her novels. Frequently we encounter heroines and other major characters whom, if not motherless, have mothers who are deficientRead MoreThe World Of Jane Austen s Sense And Sensibility Essay1710 Words à |à 7 PagesSociety, courtship and communication in Sense and Sensibility In the world of Jane Austenââ¬â¢s Sense and Sensibility, sense is given such a high social governance on all expression, both emotionally and simply conversationally. This occurs even to the point where it is found widely in courtship, which is also heavily regulated and controlled by tradition and the possible stigmatized backlash from not following convention. It can also be found that conversation has a distinction on what is acceptable beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-27262367757107151882020-05-05T23:20:00.001-07:002020-05-05T23:20:13.703-07:00Nestle Internal Communication free essay sample Organisation Communication Nestle and Internal Communication Nestle announced in a press release on the 18th of April 2011 that it is setting up a new partnership with well-established, family-owned Chinese food company Yinlu (Nestle to enter, 2011). The company will take on a 60% share of its Asian partner. 1. Nestleââ¬â¢s decision to enter partnership with Chinese food company Yinlu Foods Group (Yinlu) is an example of a combination between merging and reorganisation. The companies signed a partnership agreement that allows Nestle to take a 60% stake in Yinlu. Once a manager has identified resistance to change from a certain source in the organisation, he has to choose the most appropriate way to reduce it, out of seven different methods (Robbins Coulter, 2009, p. 281). These methods are listed below. Education and communication ââ¬â to inform the employees about the benefits of the change and teach them how to adapt to it. Participation ââ¬â to have the change opponents take part in the decision-making. We will write a custom essay sample on Nestle Internal Communication or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Facilitation and support ââ¬â to provide counselling, therapy, training or a leave of absence for the individual(s) to cope with the change. Manipulation ââ¬â to influence the opposing group by means of dishonesty. Co-optation ââ¬â a form of manipulation and participation. Selecting people who accept change ââ¬â people open to risks and change. Coercion ââ¬â the use of direct threats and support. 5. Managersââ¬â¢ role in the change process is crucial and multi-faceted. Their responsibility is to make the change take place smoothly and without getting in the way of the organisational objectives. When change occurs, managers must act as change agents, meaning that they take the responsibility for managing the change process. However, it is important to keep in mind that they must also be change leaders ââ¬â assuming the responsibility to lead the change effort (Robbins Coulter, 2009, pp. 277-286). 6. The internal communication department plays an essential role in the successful life of a company. It deals with the exchange of information between all parties involved because the overall performance of the company depends on how well the internal relationships are managed. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-78746699036305627522020-04-18T20:25:00.001-07:002020-04-18T20:25:04.398-07:00My paper free essay sample This general education course is designed to introduce the intentional learner to communication, collaboration, information utilization, critical thinking, problem solving, and professional competence and values. The course uses an interdisciplinary approach for the learner to develop personal academic strategies in order to reach desired goals and achieve academic success. Policies Faculty and students/learners will be held responsible for understanding and adhering to all policies contained within the following two documents: University policies: You must be logged into the student website to view this document. Instructor policies: This document is posted in the Course Materials forum. University policies are subject to change. Be sure to read the policies at the beginning of each class. Policies may be slightly different depending on the modality in which you attend class. If you have recently changed modalities, read the policies governing your current class modality. Course Materials Ellis, D. (2011). Becoming a master student (13th ed. We will write a custom essay sample on My paper or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page ). Boston, MA: Wadsworth, Cengage Learning. All electronic materials are available on the student website. Week One: Academic Success Details Due Points Objectives 1. 1 Identify university resources for success. 1. 2 Develop educational and professional goals. 1. 3 Recognize the importance of personal responsibility. 1. 4 Demonstrate the key elements of the writing process. Reading Read the introduction of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 2 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 10 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 11 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read this weekââ¬â¢s Electronic Reserve Readings. Video CWE Watch the Center for Writing Excellence (CWE) video on the student website. Video CME Watch the Center for Math Excellence (CME) video on the student website. Presentation CME View the Center for Mathematics Excellence (CME) presentation on the student website. Tutorial University Library Access the Toolwireà ® Learnscape: Finding Information at the University Library through the link on the student website. Complete the Learnscape Activities. Tutorial Financial Options Review the Financial Options information available on the link provided on the student website. Tutorial The Writing Process Review the CWE Grammar and Writing Guides: Guidelines for Writing Academic Essays on the student website. Audio Goal Setting and Time Management Listen to the ââ¬Å"Goal Setting and Time Managementâ⬠audio lecture located on the student website. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Time Management and Goals Complete the following exercises in Ch. 2 of Becoming a Master Student. Exercise 7: Time Monitor/Time Plan Process Exercise 10: Get Real with Your Goals Participation Participate in class discussion. See Discussion Forum 3 Discussion Questions Respond to weekly discussion questions. See Discussion Forum Individual Ethical Lens Inventory Complete the Ethical Lens Inventory through the link on the student website. Due by Week 1, Day 7 2 Individual Personal Responsibility Essay: Thesis Statement and Informal Outline Resources: CWE Thesis Generator; CWE Sample Outline Review the assignment directions for the Personal Responsibility Essay, due in Week Five. Create a thesis statement and informal outline for your Personal Responsibility Essay. Complete the University of Phoenix Material: Thesis Statement and Informal Outline Worksheet on the student website. Due by Week 1, Day 7 3 Week Two: Collaboration Details Due Points Objectives 2 2. 1 Describe methods of collaboration. 2. 2 Determine strategies for enhancing team performance. 2. 3 Identify strategies for conflict resolution. Reading Read Ch. 1 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 9 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read the following materials in the Learning Team Toolkit: Welcome Handbook (appropriate to your campus) Why Learning Teams? ââ¬Å"Teamâ⬠Competence at Work Toolkit for Effective Team Building Team Basics Additional Resources References Reading Read this weekââ¬â¢s Electronic Reserve Readings. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Attitudes and Learning Complete the following exercises in Ch. 1 of Becoming a Master Student: Exercise 4: The Discovery Wheel Exercise 5: Develop your multiple intelligences Tutorial Overview of CWE Access the Toolwireà ® Learnscape: Overview of the CWE through the link on the student website. Complete the Learnscape Activities. Audio University Goals Collaborative Learning Listen to the ââ¬Å"University Goals and Collaborative Learningâ⬠audio lecture on the student website. Participation Participate in class discussion. See Discussion Forum 3 Discussion Questions Respond to weekly discussion questions. See Discussion Forum Career Activity Interests and Competencies By completing the Career Plan activities in this course, you are creating a career plan that can help you focus on your career goals and relate those goals to your work in this course and throughout your academic program. You must complete each activity to proceed with building My Career Plan in the following weeks. You can access your results at any time in My Career Plan in Phoenix Career Services on the student website. For additional information, review the My Career Plan Student Guide on the Career Plan website. Access My Career Plan in Phoenix Career Services located on the student website. Complete the Career Interest Profiler (if you have not done so already). Complete the Career Plan Building Activity: Competencies. Take a screen shot of the results from the Competencies activity and post the Word document as an attachment in the Assignments tab: Press Alt + Print Screen on your computer keyboard to create a screen shot. Open a blank Microsoftà ® Word document. Press Ctrl + V on your keyboard to paste the screen shot into the document. Save the Word document to your computer. Due by Week 2, Day 7 2 Learning Team Instructions Week Two Learning Team Exercises Complete the Week Two Learning Team Exercises presented by your facilitator. Due by Week 2, Day 7 1 Learning Team Instructions Career Plan Discussion Reflect on your results from the Interests and Competencies activities in My Career Plan and discuss the following questions as a team: In what ways can understanding your personal competencies help in a collaborative setting? What competencies did your career plan indicate you possessed? How might you apply your strengths to enhance your team performance? Online classroom: Summarize your discussion in 150 words and post your response to the ââ¬Å"Career Building: Competenciesâ⬠thread created by your facilitator in the Main forum. Local-campus classroom: Come to class prepared to give a 2-minute informal presentation of your thoughts. Due by Week 2, Day 7 1 Individual Collaboration Complete the Ethics Exercise: Collaboration through the link on the student website. Due by Week 2, Day 7 2 Individual Personal Responsibility Essay: Rough Draft Resource: University of Phoenix Material: Thesis Statement and Informal Outline Worksheet Write a 350- to 700-word rough draft of your Personal Responsibility Essay (due in Week Five) based on your thesis statement and informal outline. Include the following: Define personal responsibility and what it means to you. Explain the relationship between personal responsibility and college success. Include a preliminary plan to practice personal responsibility in your education. Note. APA formatting is required for this assignment. Due by Week 2, Day 7 8 Learning Team Team Building Worksheet Resources: Discovery Wheel and Develop Your Multiple Intelligences exercises in Ch. 1 of Becoming a Master Student; Ethics Exercise: Collaboration Complete the University of Phoenix Material: Team Building Worksheet on the student website. Due by Week 2, Day 7 6 Week Three: Information Utilization Details Due Points Objectives 3 3. 1 Perform research in the University Library. 3. 2 Evaluate sources of information for relevancy, reliability, and bias. 3. 3 Demonstrate summarizing, paraphrasing, and quoting information from various sources. Reading Read Ch. 3 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 4 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 5 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read this weekââ¬â¢s Electronic Reserve Readings. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Essay Review Submit your Personal Responsibility Essay rough draft to WritePointà ® for review. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Personal Responsibility Essay: Research Complete the Library Research Tutorial, available on the University Library home page. Find at least two library sources for the Personal Responsibility Essay. Summarize information for both sources. Tutorial Citations and References Review the CWE Tutorials and Guides: Writing Style Guidelines and APA Information on the student website. Explore the CWE Reference and Citation Generator on the University Library home page. Tutorial Plagiarism Review Access the Toolwireà ® Learnscape: Plagiarism Review at the CWE through the link on the student website. Complete the Learnscape Activities. Video The Writing Process Watch ââ¬Å"The Writing Processâ⬠video on the student website. Participation Participate in class discussion. See Discussion Forum 3 Discussion Questions Respond to weekly discussion questions. See Discussion Forum Career Activity Career Plan Building Activity: Work Culture Preferences Access My Career Plan in Phoenix Career Services located on the student website. Complete the Career Plan Building Activity: Work Culture Preferences. (Access is only available after completing the Career Interest Profiler and the Competencies activity). Take a screen shot of your Work Culture Preferences results and post the Word document as an attachment in the Assignments tab. Press Alt + Print Screen on your computer keyboard to create a screen shot. Open a blank Microsoftà ® Word document. Press Ctrl + V on your keyboard to paste the screen shot into the document. Save the Word document to your computer. Write a 350-word summary discussing the results from the Career Interest Profiler, Competencies, and Work Culture Preferences activities. Research the following items in the University library and include your findings in the summary: Possible employers that would fit with your provided competencies Types of jobs that would align with your work culture preferences Due by Week 3, Day 7 5 Learning Team Instructions APA Reference and Citation Worksheet Review the following CWE materials: Grammar and Writing Guidelines: Plagiarism ââ¬â Understanding Paraphrase Grammar and Writing Guidelines: Plagiarism ââ¬â Using Direct Quotations Examine the importance and applicability of the APA guidelines for academic work. Complete the University of Phoenix Material: APA Reference and Citation Worksheet with examples from team membersââ¬â¢ sources. Learning Team Instructions Week Three Learning Team Exercises Complete the Week Three Learning Team Exercises presented by your facilitator. Due by Week 3, Day 7 2 Individual Personal Responsibility Essay: Research and Organization Resources: CWE Annotated Bibliography and CWE Reference and Citation Generator Review the CWE Annotated Bibliography on the student website. Prepare an annotated bibliography for the sources in your Personal Responsibility Essay. Include the following information: Reference citation for each source Summary of the information in the source and how you determined it to be reliable Write a 350-word explanation of the following: How you determined the sources to be reliable and relevant, and whether or not there is an author bias How this information might strengthen or weaken your essay Format your explanation consistent with APA guidelines. Due by Week 3, Day 7 8 Week Four: Communication Details Due Points Objectives 4 4. 1 Prepare a research paper. 4. 2 Prepare a presentation. Reading Read Ch. 8 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read this weekââ¬â¢s Electronic Reserve Readings. Tutorial Creating a Presentation Complete the Microsoftà ® PowerPointà ® tutorial on the student website. Access the Toolwireà ® Learnscape: Making a Successful Presentation through the link on the student website. Complete the Learnscape Activities. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Personal Responsibility: Revision Revise your Personal Responsibility Essay rough draft to incorporate facilitator feedback, WritePointà ® suggestions, and your library research. Participation Participate in class discussion. See Discussion Forum 3 Discussion Questions Respond to weekly discussion questions. See Discussion Forum Career Activity Career Plan Building Activity: Reasoning Abilities Access My Career Plan in Phoenix Career Services located on the student website. Complete the Career Plan Building Activity: Reasoning Abilities. Take a screen shot of your Reasoning Abilities results and post the Word document as an attachment in the Assignments tab: Press Alt + Print Screen on your computer keyboard to create a screen shot. Open a blank Microsoftà ® Word document. Press Ctrl + V on your keyboard to paste the screen shot into the document. Save the Word document to your computer. Due by Week 4, Day 7 2 Learning Team Instructions Personal Responsibility Essay: Peer Review Share your Personal Responsibility Essay rough draft. Discuss each team memberââ¬â¢s rough draft and provide feedback. Use the University of Phoenix Material: Peer Review Form to note teammatesââ¬â¢ suggestions. Learning Team Instructions Week Four Learning Team Exercises Complete the Week Four Learning Team Exercises presented by your facilitator. Due by Week 4, Day 7 1 Learning Team Instructions Career Plan Discussion Part 1 ââ¬â Reasoning Abilities Reflect on your results from the Reasoning Abilities section on in My Career Plan and discuss the following questions as a team: How can learning about your reasoning skills help to improve how you write a research paper or give a presentation? How can learning about your reasoning skills help improve a work environment? Online classroom: Summarize your discussion in 150 words and post your response as a reply to the ââ¬Å"Career Building: Reasoning Abilitiesâ⬠thread created by your facilitator in the Main forum. Local-campus classroom: Come to class prepared to give a 2-minute informal presentation of your thoughts. Part 2 ââ¬â Career Planning Reflect individually on your My Career Plan results from the entire course. What are the next steps in your career plan? What milestones have you established in the Career Plan to monitor your progress towards your career goals? Why do you think these steps are important in helping you progress? How can you focus your time and attention in future courses based on your career competencies and goals? Online classroom: Post your response to the questions as a Reply to the ââ¬Å"Career Planningâ⬠thread created by your facilitator in the Main forum. Local-campus classroom: Come to class prepared to give a 2-minute informal presentation of your thoughts. Due by Week 4, Day 7 2 Individual Ethics Simulation Complete the Ethics Simulation: Dilemmas: The Purloined Paper and The Big Presentation through the link on the student website. Due by Week 4, Day 7 3 Individual Personal Ethical Statement Resources: Ethical Lens Inventory Write a 350- to 700-word reflective statement that defines your personal ethical viewpoint. Include what you learned through the Ethical Lens Inventory: Your preferred ethical lens Your blind spot Your strengths and weaknesses Your values and the resultant behaviors Due by Week 4, Day 7 8 Week Five: Critical Thinking and Professional Competence Details Due Points Objectives 5 5. 1 Examine ethics issues. 5. 2 Identify personal bias and emotion. 5. 3 Determine the relationship between higher education and professional competence. Reading Read Ch. 7 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read Ch. 12 of Becoming a Master Student. Reading Read this weekââ¬â¢s Electronic Reserve Readings. Nongraded Activities and Preparation Professional Competence Presentation (Preparation) Resource: Microsoftà ® PowerPointà ® tutorial Create an outline for the Profession Competence Presentation. Consider the following questions: What role do ethics play in professional competence? How might you use what you have learned about your ethical perspective to develop professional competence? Tutorial Critical Thinking Access the Toolwireà ® Learnscape: Assessing the Validity of Varying Points of View through the link on the student website. Complete the Learnscape Activities. Participation Participate in class discussion. See Discussion Forum 3 Discussion Questions Respond to weekly discussion questions. See Discussion Forum Learning Team Instructions Week Five Learning Team Exercises Complete the Week Five Learning Team Exercises presented by your facilitator. Due by Week 5, Sunday, Day 6 1 Individual Ethical Decision Making Complete the following Ethics Exercises through the link on the student website. Digital Footprint Financial Responsibility Student Marketplace Due by Week 5, Sunday, Day 6 5 Individual Personal Responsibility Essay Resources: Personal Responsibility Essay rough draft; University of Phoenix Material: APA Reference and Citation Worksheet; Learning Team peer reviews; facilitator feedback Write a 700- to 1,400-word paper expanding your Personal Responsibility Essay by incorporating feedback from your facilitator and teammates, and including the following: An introduction A minimum of 2 properly cited and referenced research sources from the University Library A plan to incorporate effective strategies for success as a student A conclusion Reference page Format your essay consistent with APA guidelines. Due by Week 5, Sunday, Day 6 10 Individual Competency Presentation Resources: Learning Team discussion; Professional Competence Presentation Outline; Microsoftà ® PowerPointà ® tutorial; Career Plan Create a professional competency presentation plan that answers the following questions: Describe your competencies and how they reflect your work culture preferences. Do these competencies intersect with your potential career? Explain. Why are the competencies important to your future career goals? What is the industry outlook for your preferred career path? You can locate this information in the following places: Job Market Research Tool in Phoenix Career Services The Company Directories and Financials databases in the University Library (under Library Resources) BLS. gov Based on your activity results, what are three possible employers that align with your preferred career path? What actions can you take either to improve your stronger core competencies or to strengthen the areas in which you are not as strong as you progress through each course in the program? Create a presentation of 7 to 10 slides, or 5 to 7 minutes, with speaker notes, showing your plan for using your education to develop professional competencies. (Note: Oral presentations are not required for this assignment. ) Due by Week 5, Sunday, Day 6 5 Learning Team Learning Team Charter Resources: Learning Team Toolkit, activities, and University of Phoenix Material: Team Building Worksheet Complete the Learning Team Charter located in the Learning Team Toolkit. Due by Week 5, Sunday, Day 6 8 Copyright University of Phoenixà ® and WritePointà ® are registered trademarks of Apollo Group, Inc. in the United States and/or other countries. Microsoftà ®, and PowerPointà ® are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries. All other company and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies. Use of these marks is not intended to imply endorsement, sponsorship, or affiliation. Edited in accordance with University of Phoenixà ® editorial standards and practices. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-11430109302965570882020-03-14T16:07:00.001-07:002020-03-14T16:07:03.071-07:00Free First Grade Mathematics WorksheetsFree First Grade Mathematics Worksheets When it comes to teaching first-grade students the common core standards of mathematics, theres no better way to practice than with worksheets geared toward repeatedly applying the same basic concepts such as counting, adding and subtracting without carrying, word problems, telling time, and calculating currency. As young mathematicians progress through their early education, they will be expected to demonstrate comprehension of these basic skills, so its important for teachers to be able to gauge their students aptitudes in the subject by administering quizzes, working one on one with each student, and by sending them home with worksheets like the ones below to practice on their own or with their parent. However, in some cases, students may require additional attention or explanation beyond what worksheets alone can offer- for this reason, teachers should also prepare demonstrations in class to help guide students through the coursework. When working with first-grade students, its important to start from where they understand and work your way up, ensuring that each studentsà masters each concept individually before moving on to the next topic. Click on the links in the rest of the article to discover worksheets for each of the topics addressed. Worksheets for Counting, Time, and Currency One of the first things first graders have to master is the concept of counting to 20, which will help them quickly count beyond those basic numbers and begin to understand the 100s and 1000s by the time they reach the second grade. Assigning worksheets like Order the Numbers to 50 will help teachers assess whether or not a student fully grasps the number line. Additionally, students will be expected to recognize number patterns and should practice their skills inà counting by 2s,à counting by 5s, andà countingà by 10sà and identifying whether a number isà greater than or less than to 20, and be able to parse outà mathematical equations fromà word problemsà likeà these, which may includeà ordinal numbers up to 10 In terms of practical math skills, the first grade is also an important time to ensure students understand how toà tell timeà on a clock face and how toà countà U.S. coins up to 50 cents. These skills will be essential as students begin to apply two-digit addition and subtraction in the second grade. Addition and Subtraction for First Graders First-grade math students will be introduced to basic addition and subtraction, oftentimes in the form of word problems, over the course of the year, meaning they will be expected to add up to 20 and subtract numbers below fifteen, both of which wont require the students to re-group or carry the one. These concepts are easiest understood through tactile demonstration such as number blocks or tiles or through illustration or example such as showing the class a pile of 15 bananas and taking away four of them, then asking the students to calculate then count the remaining bananas. This simple display ofà subtractionà will help guide students through the process of early arithmetic, which can be additionally aided by these subtraction facts to 10. Students will also be expected to demonstrate a comprehension of addition, through completing word problems that featureà addition sentences up to 10, and worksheets like Adding to 10, Adding to 15, and Adding to 20 will help teachers gauge students comprehension of the basics of simple addition. Other Worksheets and Concepts First-grade teachers may also introduce their students to a base-level knowledge of fractions, geometric shapes, and mathematical patterns, though none of them are required course material until the second and third grades. Check out Understanding 1/2, this Shape Book, and these additionalà 10 Geometry worksheets for late Kindergarten and Grade 1. When working withà first-gradeà students, its important to start from where they are. It is also important to focus on thinking concepts. For instance, think about this word problem:à A man has 10 balloons and the wind blew 4 away. How many are left? Heres another way to ask the question:à A man was holding some balloons and the wind blew 4 away. He only has 6 balloons left, how many did he start with? Too often we ask questions where the unknown is at the end of the question, but the unknown can also be put at the beginning of the question. Explore more concepts in these extra worksheets: How Many More to 10Fill in the Missing Numbers - to 10How many less - to 10Subtraction Facts to 10 Beginning Fractions: Concept of 1/2. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-1213441318106415592020-02-27T06:34:00.001-08:002020-02-27T06:34:03.584-08:00Technological Advances In Video Games Research PaperTechnological Advances In Video Games - Research Paper Example 2000s ââ¬â A virtual universe F. Future technological developments of the video game industry G. Conclusion Technological Advances in Video Games Through the Years The video game industry has evolved into what it is now through the advancement in technological developments. This essay aims to present the technological advances that the video game has undergone spanning more than 50 years of constant innovations. A. The early beginnings (1947 to 1960s) In January 1947, a patent was filed by Thomas T. Goldsmith Junior and Estle Ray Mann for the first electronic video game, the Cathode-Ray Tube Amusement Device, where the players hit targets printed on overlays through light beam missiles by just adjusting knobs (Polsson , par 1). Later in 1952, a tic-tac-toe game, Noughts and Crosses, became the first known computer game which was created by A. S. Douglas (KCTS Television 1). It ran on the Electronic Delay Storage Automatic Calculator (EDSAC), a big Cambridge University computer. T his game enabled a person to play tic-tac-toe against a computer player. Six years later, Tennis for Two, an interactive game which uses an analog computer and an oscilloscope as a screen was created by American physicist Willy Higinbotham to entertain visitors of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (KCTS Television 2). A milestone was achieved in 1962 when Steve Russell created the Spacewar! which ran on a PDP-1 computer and uses a vector-graphics screen. The game consists of two small flying spaceships which are controlled by two players with joysticks and buttons (Polsson , par 4). The ââ¬Å"Brown Boxâ⬠, the first console that works on a standard television was created by German-born television engineer, Ralph Baer in 1967. This marked the birth of the first television ping-pong video game system (Polsson , par 9). Baer later applied for a patent for his invention. B. 1970s ââ¬â The video game empire is born a. Home game console The 1970s was the start of the video game empire. It was in the year 1971 when Nolan Bushnell created Computer Space, the first coin arcade-style game and first commercial video game (Polsson , par 19). This game did not gain much popularity though, as that of the Magnavox Odyssey, which was the first home game console which contains 12 different games, including Ping-Pong (KCTS Television 6). This console was also the first to use a light gun for target shooting. Cards are inserted to select the games. The Odyssey however only used ââ¬Å"simple black and white graphics enhanced by plastic overlays for the television screenâ⬠(Miller , par 4). In 1975, Atari sold a home version of Pong whose ââ¬Å"unique feature is the single chip that produces both an on-screen score and the sound the game makes when the paddle hits the ballâ⬠(Time Inc. 3). In August of 1976, Fairchild Camera and Instrument introduced the first programmable home video game system (Miller , par 11). Moreover, it boasted of 16-color graphics and a variety of games as programmed by removable ROM cartridges. A year after, Atari launched the Atari 2600 which is the first multi-game home console which had cartridges that store game information (KCTS Television 9). It included the famous games Space Invaders, Breakout, Missile Command and Combat. It was during this decade that home computers were released in North America such as the Apple II, the TRS-80 and the Commodore PET, along with the famous Atari 400/800. b. Arcades Aside from home computers, arcade games rose in popularity because consumers could just beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-70031252836451887172020-02-10T23:21:00.001-08:002020-02-10T23:21:02.219-08:00The Subiaco Centro project (Transit-oriented develepments) Research ProposalThe Subiaco Centro project (Transit-oriented develepments) - Research Proposal Example The project is aimed to expand the land usage opportunities in the Subiaco area and balance and complement the existing community fabric, while promoting alternative transport usage. Following are some of planning innovations that went into the project: Transit oriented development Community engagement Affordable housing Heritage conservation Reason for the selection of the topic: In the past, developmental design in the city of Perth has largely been oriented towards mobility through cars and other automobiles. However, with the development of the Subiaco-Centro project, this focus has now shifted from car-friendly planning to development that is grounded not only in land usage policies but also on the principle of actively pursuing the opportunities of transit-oriented development. This shift in focus has come with a significant challenges as well as opportunities, and the primary reason that I have selected this subject for my research is the fact that it presents a wide array of topics that need exploration. Since this project is not only focused on the creation of a safe, sustainable and harmonious city, there is also a major emphasize on re-inventing the cityââ¬â¢s transportation system and provide easy and equal access to different modes of transportation. In this regard, the concept of transit-oriented has given rise to a lot of issues and I intend to not only study and research the various opportunities that have arisen due to this, but also explore the various obstacles that have been a part of this project. In the course of my research, I intend to study the following: The vision behind this project and the significance of creating development around public transportation. Current transport infrastructure designs. The need and demand for transit-oriented development design in Perth. The Socio-Economic effects of this type of development. The opportunities presented by maintaining a balance between high level of transit accessibility and land usage providing affordable housing. The research paper will take from current existing literature on these topics and compare the trending opinions with what has happened/is happening in Perth, and how it will effect the population, environment and economy of the city. Potential Sources of Information: Journal Articles: Theoretical discussions about the topic, cast studies documenting other instances of TOD in different countries etc. Reports/Other Documents: SRA planning schemes, Subiaco Redevelopment Act 1994, project information, Scheme texts/maps Websites: Subiaco Redevelopment Authority, Western Australian Planning Commission, City of Subiaco Proposed Structure of the Paper: 1. Introduction ââ¬â A discussion about the fundamentals issues examined in the paper 2. Transit-oriented development in the Subi-centro project - A discussion about the history of TOD, the motivation behind incorporating it into Perthââ¬â¢s developmental designs, the vision behind the plans. - The Key pl ayers (Dept. of planning, private investors, SRA) - The objectives of the Subi-Centro project (in terms of development centred around transit modes in Perth) 3. The Obstacles and Opportunities arising due to TOD - A discussion about the demand for TOD in Perth - The attitudes of the residents of the city about this change of developmental designs. (Through a discussion of stakeholder interviews conducted beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-13798936619997980402020-01-31T02:01:00.001-08:002020-01-31T02:01:03.042-08:00The Impact of social networking Essay Example for Free The Impact of social networking Essay INTRODUCTION Online social media have gained astounding worldwide growth and popularity which has led to attracting attention from variety of researchers globally. Although with time all generations have come to embrace the changes social network has brought about, teenagers and young adults are the most fanatic users of these sites. According to various research studies in the field of online social networks, it has been revealed that these sites are impacting the lives of the youth greatly. When using these sites such as Twitter, Facebook or MySpace, there are both positive and negative effects on the youth. POSITIVE IMPACTS It is inevitable to ignore the fact that nowadays social network plays an essential role in teenagersââ¬â¢ lives. Most youths are spending at least an hour in these popular social media sites. Generally, 1 out of 7 minutes which are spent online by most of those who can access internet is spent on Facebook according to Shea Bennett. One may ask how spending all that time on the social media sites may have a positive impact on them. Well, social media helps the youth and any other user updated with what is happening around the world, help the teenagers stay connected and interact with each other even if they are many miles apart. This strengthens their relationship even if they finished school and moved to different locations they stay connected and update one another. In addition, social media sites have provided a platform whereby the youth can create groups and pages based on their common discipline and end up building connections and opportunities for their respective careers by updating various topics to discuss. Youth who have been interviewed they say that social media has become their lifestyle and it makes their lives easier and efficient. NEGATIVE IMPACTS While on one hand social network sites seems to bring people together and connected on the other hand it creates social isolation in regard to BBC News report. As the youth tend to spend many hours on these sites, they rarely have face-to-face interaction. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-20916248647319959642020-01-22T22:23:00.001-08:002020-01-22T22:23:03.058-08:00Understanding Hypnosis Essay -- HypnotherapyI feel it useful to provide a definition of hypnotherapy as well as hypnosis before moving on and answering this question of this essay. Linnenkamp Doyle writes, ââ¬Ëhypnotherapy is the use of hypnosis to treat diseaseââ¬â¢ something that she documents in her case study. This medical idea of hypnosis needs further exploration in terms of how it has evolved and sparked debate amongst medical and dental practitioners. Four very significant hypnotherapists are arguably Mesmer, Braid, Esdaile and Elliotson, all putting emphasis on the medical aspect of hypnotherapy. Mesmer, for example, devoted his 1779 27 Propositions concerning animal magnetism. Closer to modern day, in his book Hypnotherapy, Dave Elman not only concentrates on relaxation (a topic which is relevant in this essay), but also puts forward the fundamental medical idea of hypnosis, specifically concentrating on factors such as the use of anesthesia in subjects of hypnosis before they have dental or medical procedures. This medical and dental use of hypnosis, which provides the transition from hypnosis to hypnotherapy, also introduced the related problem of people falsely claiming to have special skills in this area. For Instance, D Zimmerman, chairman of the council for medical and dental hypnosis, wrote to the British Medical Journal in 1968, expressing concerns that ââ¬Ëhypnotherapeutic charlatansââ¬â¢ had been invading and jeopardizing medical and dental procedures. Zimmerman writes that ââ¬Ëit has been brought to the notice of this Society that courses in hypnotherapy are being offered to medical and dental practitioners by persons who hold no recognized professional qualificationsââ¬â¢. Zimmerman adds to this a request for the validation of the official society for medical and d... ...s identified, analyzed, and made me understand the various definitions of hypnosis. It has also demonstrated the psychological and physiological effects to the role of relaxation. Works Cited Hypnotherapy: A Handbook Michael Heap and Windy Dryden (Milton Keynes: Open University Press) Hypnotherapy Dave Elman (New York: Westwood Publishing, 1983) Hidden Depths: The Story of Hypnosis Robin Waterfield (New York: Brunner-Routledge, 2003) The British Medical Journal, ââ¬ËHypnotherapyââ¬â¢ D Zimmerman (Vol. 3, No. 5616 (Aug. 24, 1968), p. 501) Hypnotherapy A Practical Handbook Helmut Karle and Jennifer Boys, (New York: Free Association Books, 1987) http://web.archive.org/web/20040710162753/http://www.unbf.ca/psychology/likely/readings/mesmer.htm Franz Mesner (27 Propositions, 1779) http://www.brainandhealth.com/Brain-Waves.html beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-2072322204686889142020-01-14T18:47:00.001-08:002020-01-14T18:47:03.771-08:00Burdens of History EssayThe British imperial history has long been a fortress of conservative scholarship, its study separated from mainstream British history, its practitioners resistant to engaging with new approaches stemming from the outside ââ¬â such as feminist scholarship, postcolonial cultural studies, social history, and black history. In this light, Antoinette Burtonââ¬â¢s Burdens of History: British Feminists, Indian Women, and Imperial Culture, 1865-1915 represents challenges to the limited vision and exclusivity of standard imperial history. Burtonââ¬â¢s Burdens of History is part of a budding new imperial history, which is characterized by its diversity instead of a single approach. In this book, the author examines the relationship between liberal middle-class British feminists, Indian women, and imperial culture in the 1865-1915 period. Its primary objective is to relocate ââ¬Å"British feminist ideologies in their imperial context and problematizing Western feministsââ¬â¢ historical relationships to imperial culture at homeâ⬠(p. 2). Burton describes Burdens of History as a history of ââ¬Å"discourseâ⬠(p. 7). By this, she means the history of British feminism, imperialism, orientalism, and colonialism. Throughout the book, the author interposes and synthesizes current reinterpretations of British imperial history, womenââ¬â¢s history, and cultural studies that integrate analyses of race and gender in attempts at finding the ideological structures implanted in language. In this book, Burton analyzes a wide assortment of feminist periodicals for the way British feminists fashioned an image of a disenfranchised and passive colonized female ââ¬Å"Otherâ⬠. The impact of the message conveyed was to highlight not a rejection of empire ââ¬â as modern-day feminists too readily have tended to assume ââ¬â but a British feminist imperial obligation. According to Burton, empire lives up to what they and many of their contemporaries believed were its purposes and ethical ideals. Burton based her book on extensive empirical research. Here, she is concerned with the material as well as the ideological and aware of the complexity of historical interpretation. Backed by these, the author particularly examines the relationship between imperialism and womenââ¬â¢s suffrage. Burton brings together a remarkable body of evidence to back her contention that womenââ¬â¢s suffrage campaignersââ¬â¢ claims for recognition as imperial citizens were legitimated as ââ¬Å"an extension of Britainââ¬â¢s worldwide civilizing missionâ⬠(p. 6). Centering on the Englishwomanââ¬â¢s Review before 1900 and suffrage journals post 1900, the author finds an imperialized discourse that made British womenââ¬â¢s parliamentary vote and emancipation imperative if they were to ââ¬Å"shoulder the burdens required of imperial citizensâ⬠(p. 172). The author shows in Burdens of History how Indian women were represented as ââ¬Å"the white feminist burdenâ⬠(p. 10) as ââ¬Å"helpless victims awaiting the representation of their plight and the redress of their condition at the hands of their sisters in the metropoleâ⬠(p. 7). Responding both on the charge that white feminists need to address the method of cultural analysis pioneered by Edward Said and the imperial location and racial assumptions of historical feminisms, Burton explores the images of Indian women within Victorian and Edwardian feminist writing. In her analysis, the author argues that Indian women functioned as the ideological ââ¬Å"Otherâ⬠within such texts, their presence serving to authorize feminist activities and claims. By creating an image of tainted Oriental womanhood, and by presenting enforced widowhood, seclusion, and child marriage as ââ¬Å"the totality of Eastern womenââ¬â¢s experiencesâ⬠(p. 67), British feminists insisted on their own superior emancipation and laid claim to a wider imperial role. However, while feminists persistently reiterated their responsibility for Indian women, the major purpose of such rhetoric was to institute the value of feminism to the imperial nation. According to the author: ââ¬Å"The chief function of the Other woman was to throw into relief those special qualities of the British feminist that not only bound her to the race and the empire but made her the highest and most civilized national female type, the very embodiment of social progress and progressive civilizationâ⬠(p. 83). According to Burton, British feminists were, ââ¬Å"complicitous with much of British imperial enterpriseâ⬠(p. 25): their movement must be seen as supportive of that wider imperial effort. She sustains this argument through an examination of feminist emancipatory writings, feminist periodicals and the literature of both the campaign against the application of the Contagious Diseases Acts in India and the campaign for the vote. Indeed, the greatest strength of this book lies in the fact that Burton has made a n extensive search through contemporary feminist literature from a new perspective. In the process, she recovers some quite interesting subgenres within feminist writing. She shows, for instance, how feminist histories sought to reinterpret the Anglo-Saxon past to justify their own political claims and specifying some characteristic differences between explicitly feminist and more general womenââ¬â¢s periodicals. Certainly, Burtonââ¬â¢s survey establishes the centrality of imperial issues to the British feminist movement, providing a helpful genealogy of some styles of argumentation that have persisted to the present day. Burdens of History is a serious contribution to feminist history and the history of feminism. In conclusion, Burton states that British feminists were agents operating both in opposition to oppressive ideologies and in support of them-sometimes simultaneously, because they saw in empire an inspiration, a rationale, and a validation for womenââ¬â¢s reform activities in the public sphere. Her arguments are persuasive; indeed, once stated, they become almost axiomatic. However, Burtonââ¬â¢s work is to some extent flawed by two major problems. First, the author never compares the ââ¬Å"imperial feminismâ⬠; rather she locates in her texts to other imperial ideologies. In addition, Burton does not subject imperialism to the same kind of careful scrutiny she turns on feminism. She does not define ââ¬Å"imperialismâ⬠in her section on definitions, but uses the term ââ¬â as she uses ââ¬Å"feminismâ⬠ââ¬â largely to denote an attitude of mind. Another problem is Burtonââ¬â¢s failure to address the question of how feminist imperialism worked in the world more generally. It is true that feminists sought the vote using a rhetoric of cross-cultural maternal and racial uplift, however, one may ask: what were the effects of this strategy on the hearing accorded their cause, on wider attitudes toward race and empire, and, more specifically, on policies toward India? The author not only brushes aside such questions; she implies that they are unimportant. It seems that, for Burton, the ideological efforts of British feminists were significant only for British feminism. It can be argued that Burtonââ¬â¢s difficulty in tracing the way Burdens of History works in the world is a consequence of her methodological and archival choices. The problem is not that the author has chosen to approach her subject through a ââ¬Å"discursive tackâ⬠(p. 27), but rather that she has employed this method too narrowly and on too restrictive range of sources. While the author has read almost every piece of feminist literature, she has not gone beyond this source base to systematically examine either competing official documents, Indian feminist writings, or imperial discourses. Thus, Burtonââ¬â¢s texts are treated either self-referentially or with reference to current feminist debates. Overall, Burtonââ¬â¢s approach is useful in providing a critical history for feminism today, Certainly, it is as a critique of Western feminismââ¬â¢s pretensions to universal and transhistorical high-mindedness that Burdens of History succeeds. However, if one wishes to map out the impact of imperial feminism not only on feminism today, but also on imperial practices and relations historically, one needs a study that is willing to cross the border between political history and intellectual history and to take greater methodological risks. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-91135256444061823992020-01-06T15:11:00.001-08:002020-01-06T15:11:03.483-08:00Essay On Sports And Sports - 725 Words What are the positive effects sports have on children? This question has a wide variety of answers. Some may say sports can help with intelligence, building relationships, and activity, while others see sports as overwhelming or dangerous. Sports can influence a childââ¬â¢s well being far greater than most can imagine. From their mental and physical development, to their bright futures, sports play an important role in a young boy or girlââ¬â¢s lifetime. Specifically, tennis is one of the best sports to support the development and futures of children. The future of a child is very important and it is critical that it does not become endangered by negative factors. From the early years of their life, kids can learn and develop from sports.â⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬Å"Other sports may provide excellent health benefits, as well as stimulate mental and emotional growth. But no other sport received such acclaim for its great benefits physically, mentally and emotionally.â⬠(Groppel) Along with the teaching of respect, sportsmanship, healthy habits, fairness, and the basics, tennis helps kids develop hand-eye coordination, positive characteristics, and acquire tactical thinking. Tennis is a very mental game. It is optimal that you have control over your emotions as well as figure out your opponents mentality. ââ¬Å"The tactical aspect of the game keeps your mind occupied while your body gets a good workoutââ¬âthe short term goals of reaching that little yellow ball in time makes it a complex sport full of small rewards and limitless challenges.â⬠(Cramton) Teaching a kid these rather complex ideas from a young age will not only aid them with their tennis skills but also their life skills to come in the future. Tennis has its benefits that jump starts a childââ¬â¢s development and knowledge of life lessons, but it also has its benefits of providing a future for young players who work hard to be successful. These futures can include athletic scholarships, a professional career, or possibly a job teaching others tennis. There is also the effect of a personââ¬â¢s happiness in the future. ââ¬Å"Tennis players scored higher in vigor, optimism and self-esteem while scoring lower in depression, anger, confusion, anxiety andShow MoreRelatedEssay On Sports Sport1691 Words à |à 7 PagesThe NBA has been gaining a ton of attention with its soap opera like off-season. Im here to remind folks which sports runs king in America as Im excited for the upcoming season. A lot has happened since the Patriots Super Bowl, as teams have been shaping their roster to establish themselves in the league. Many storylines are to be looked at as its hard to choose which ones are the most interesting. 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If any are familiar with the series ââ¬Å"last chance uâ⬠, Iââ¬â¢m sure you know what a blowout game looks like. I feel like it is definitely not what I came or care to see. Iââ¬â¢d ratherRead More Women in Sports and Sports Broadcasting Essay584 Words à |à 3 PagesWomen in Sports and Sports Broadcasting Before I conducted this media analysis about women in sports and sport broadcasting, I hypothesized the obvious - that more male sports would be in the media, and that there would be more male sports broadcasters as well. Through my observations I did find that the sports arena and sports broadcasting sphere are male dominated. However, I also found that although there are not many stories about women, there has been a steady progression and magazinesRead MoreSport and Football Essay1468 Words à |à 6 PagesProf. Milne Eng 101-25 29 February 2012 Respect Athletic Sports have come a long way since basketball was played with milk crates and flat balls in the alleys of the poor and rich alike. One may ask, why should I be concerned with the senseless sweating and hours of practice of those who enjoy sports? The answer is one that will open your eyes to the fulfillment sports can bring whether recreational or competitive. Sport activities offer a variety of lifelong qualities and provide thoseRead MoreSociology of Sport Essay1085 Words à |à 5 PagesWhat is the social role of sport? To what extent does social structure influence the practice and experience of sport? Discuss in relation to two of the following: gender, class, ethnicity or Aboriginality, or region. Illustrate your answer with at least three examples from sporting contexts (local or international). Sport plays a huge role in todayââ¬â¢s society. It contributes to oneââ¬â¢s health and fitness, social interaction, social and motor skills, patriotism, fun and entertainment. It alsoRead MoreEssay on Sports Narrative709 Words à |à 3 PagesTyler Douglas Professor Thamm Eng 101-10:00 a.m. Due: Sep. 29, 2008 Essay #1 Narrative A major role in my life would definitely be sports. It is almost as if I look up to sports because I could not live without them. Sports pretty much define me as me. I love to play sports as well as watch all kinds of sports on T.V. and if I could ever go to a game and watch the players play live I would be thrilled. Basically sports define me because I am ambitious, I finish what I start, I set goals for beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-47340046745425971472019-12-29T11:36:00.001-08:002019-12-29T11:36:03.402-08:00Comparison of Themes in In The Most Dangerous Game by... In ââ¬Å"The Most Dangerous Gameâ⬠by Richard Connell and ââ¬Å"Young Goodman Brownâ⬠by Nathaniel Hawthorne both stories have very different themes. Brown is a man that has followed the right path all his life suddenly is challenged to face temptaion and ending all his curosity. He decides to go into the forest to face the devil. In Richard Connells short story he centers his theme around how far peoople will go when they fear for their life, people will do anything to survive. I. Young Goodman Brown A. The weakness of public morality B. The inevitable loss of innocence and the fear of the wilderness II. The Most Dangerous Game A. Effects of war B. Reason versus Instinct Brown has to face some of the same problems thatâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Both of them have seemed to have different war experiences. Rainsford is in the position of being hunted. Connell also suggests that Zaroffs martial experiences altered him and allowed him to think of other people as worthy prey. Connell is showing the hunter and the prey how to kill or to be killed. The story consists of lots of violence as he hunts for humans. The author wants us to see the cruelty in the hunting for animals, or humans. He shows reason and instinct through Rainsfords friend Whitney, who asserts that animals instinctively feel fear and then confesses that Captain Neilsons description of Ship-Trap Island has given him chills. Rainsford realized that all creatures, including people, rely on fear and their instinct to survive to avoid pain and death. Rainsford was a committed and determined survivor he just does not give up. Being a good hunter meant that he had the ability to improvise and take risks. Goodman Brown could be anyone and the author is simply stating that this is a common problem that everyone will have to deal with at some point in time in their life. Its always easier to stray away from the good path. Itââ¬â¢s the nature of evil, the hypocrisy in peop le, and the decisions that we make. While many people may blame religion when itââ¬â¢s a path that was chosen. Goodman Brown losses his wife Faith, his faith in salvation, and his faith in man. General Zaroff attempts to justifyShow MoreRelatedShort Story Compare/Contrast1439 Words à |à 6 PagesFiction Essay ENGL 102: Composition and Literature MLA Outline THESIS: In ââ¬Å"The Most Dangerous Gameâ⬠by Richard Connell and ââ¬Å"Young Goodman Brownâ⬠by Nathaniel Hawthorne, imagery and characterization are employed to illustrate the ever present inner darkness of humanity. However, the authors set very different themes in how their protagonists reflect upon and respond to being faced with it. Both men must choose whether they will reject and confront evil or simply abide it with apathy. beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-17535697787492605972019-12-21T07:24:00.001-08:002019-12-21T07:24:03.217-08:00Love And Honor Through The Ages. Love Can Do Crazy Things Love and Honor Through the Ages Love can do crazy things to many individuals; making them crazy or mad, dying from a possible broken heart, or even killing themselves or someone else. During the Middle Ages, love was termed as chivalry or noble love, and then romantic love in the Nineteenth Century of Romanticism. I will discover and show how it changed during the periods of literature with the materials we have studied in this class. Letââ¬â¢s start at the beginning---itââ¬â¢s a very good place to start. Courtly love and chivalry were depicted in The Knights Tale by Chaucer. Two knightly brothers, Palamon and Arcite, fall in love with the same woman. According to the rules of chivalry, they are willing to protect one another at allâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬Å"I have here, with my cousin Palamon, / Had strife and rancor many a day thatââ¬â¢s gone, / For love of you and for my jealousy, / May Jove so surely guide my soul for me, / To speak about a lover with properly, / With all the circumstances, faithfully, / That is to say truth, honour, and knighthood, / Wisdom humility and kinship good, / And generous soul and all the loverââ¬â¢s art / So now may Jove have in my soul his part / As in this world, right now, I know of none / So worthy to be loved as Palamon / Who serves you and will do so all his life / And if you ever should become a wife, / Forget not Palamon, the noble manâ⬠(Chaucer 1925-1939). First and foremost, a knight was expected to act honorably in his presentation in battles and in his treatment of women. Common with the times in which this and the next story were written, the Middle Ages was the expression of chivalry. Depicted within these stories, the ââ¬Å"unwavering valor in the face of danger, loyalty to oneââ¬â¢s leader and companions, and an intense concern for personal honorâ⬠(Lawall 1145) are shown multiple times over. Consequently, throughout the story, Arcite and Palamon faltered in their knightly code, much like the knights in the next story, Maloryââ¬â¢s The Knight of the Cart. Here we find Lancelot and Meliagrance in love with Queen Guenever. Meliagrance deceitfully captures Guenever showing hisShow MoreRelatedAnalysis Of Emily Bronte s Wuthering Heights And Frankenstein 789 Words à |à 4 PagesMakaylah McCurry English 4 Honors Mr. Tindal March 4, 2015 Two Stories, One Hunger: Revenge. 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An example, of this transformation is in the short story by Tim Oââ¬â¢Brien called, ââ¬Å"The Things They Carried.â⬠It shows a young, First Lieutenant, in the Vietnam War named Jimmy Cross, and his journey to become a successful leader, but only after the death of one of his men.Read MoreThe Things They Carried By Tim O Brien1211 Words à |à 5 PagesA young male, First Lieutenant, in the Army will unknowingly become a man as men server under him. Becoming a man with such unspeakable responsibilities at such a young age can emotionally test even the strongest man. An example, of this transformation is in the short story by Tim Oââ¬â¢Brien called, The Things They Carried, it shows a young, First Lieutenant, in the Vietnam War named Jimmy Cross, and his journey to become a successful leader, but only after the death of one of his men. This young, FirstRead MoreEssay on An Analysis of Vonnegutââ¬â¢s Breakfast of Champions973 Words à |à 4 PagesAn Analysis of Vonnegutââ¬â¢s Breakfast of Champions Kilgore Trout is a struggling novelist that can only get his novels published in porn magazines. Dwayne Hoover is a fabulously well-to-do car salesman that is on the brink of insanity. They only meet once in their lives, but the entire novel, Breakfast of Champions (1973), is based on this one meeting. The meeting is brief, but that is all the author, Kurt Vonnegut, needs to express his message. In fact, it is quite crucial that the meeting startsRead MoreDon Quixote Analysis Essay707 Words à |à 3 PagesDon Quixoteââ¬â¢s Honorable Adventures Age limits do not exist for a creative imagination. Don Quixote, an adventurous fifty-year-old man, escapes through a fantasy world. With the aid of his great pal, Sancho, Don Quixote takes the role of an honorable knight hoping to free the oppressed, fight against wizards and giants, and earn the love of his fair maiden, the Dulcinea of Taboso. Cervantesââ¬â¢ communicates his thoughts about friendship, honor, family, and society in the story using three techniques:Read More The Dysfunctional Family of King Lear Essay1631 Words à |à 7 PagesShakespeare come out and blatantly tell his audience that Cordelia is the most caring and loving daughter, while her two sisters are uncaring and greedy, and love their father only when they stand to gain from it. However, via the three daughtersââ¬â¢ speeches throughout King Lear, he does give subtle hints as to the daughterââ¬â¢s personalities, and it is through these implications that the audience discovers the extent of each of the daughterââ¬â¢s character. 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After 2 months Keema Williams threaten to call the police, so my grandma met my dad and he gave her to me so he wouldnââ¬â¢t have to deal with Keema Williams. When my grandma brought me toRead MoreAnalysis of the Text Ãâà «the Man of DestinyÃâà » by George Bernard Shaw1271 Words à |à 6 Pagesoften bitterly satirical. He was a friend of the Soviet Union which he visit in 1931. The Man of Destiny is an 1897 play by George Bernard Shaw. It was published as a part of Plays Pleasant, which also included Arms and the Man, Candida and You Never Can Tell. It is based on an historic incident at the early stage of Napoleon Bonapartes military career following upon his advanceme nt to General. This text is written in a form of play. The style is informal, with elements of formal. There are such bookishRead MoreThe Effects Of Bailos On Human Nature1481 Words à |à 6 Pageseither good or evil nature based on education, family, and their interactions. Through our journey back down to Balios, we have found that human nature is neither good nor evil like Kao Tzu explained. Human beings have higher education standards which starts at a young age and can possibly go forever. They have so called leaders that they named teachers. These teachers help motivate humans to achieve good things as much as possible but at the same time, it is the humans responsibility to choose beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3816785270702502102.post-14150666615981338402019-12-13T03:55:00.001-08:002019-12-13T03:55:05.466-08:00Decision Tree Free Essays string(62) " an outside opinion on a decision the company must make soon\." Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals By Rafael Olivas 2007 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals ii Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Table of Contents Section Page Prefaceâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ iv 1. 0 Introductionâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Tree or any similar topic only for you Order Now 1 1. 1 Advantages of using decision trees â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 1 1. About this primerâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 1 1. 3 To use this primerâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 2 Decision Scenario â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 3 2. 1 Describe decision alter natives and outcomesâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 4 2. 1. 1 The first decision (root node)â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 4 2. 1. Chance outcomes â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 5 2. 1. 3 Endpoints and payoffs â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 5 2. 0 2. 2 Incorporate uncertainty (outcome probability) â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 7 2. 3 Find the expected value (EV)â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 8 2. 4 Add a sequential decision â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 0 2. 4. 1 Construct a decision tree â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 10 2. 4. 2 Recalculate the expected values â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 11 2. 4. 3 Analyze the changes â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 13 3. 0 Basic Conceptsâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 4 3. 1 Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 14 3. 1. 1 3. 1. 2 3. 1. 3 3. 1. 4 Decision nodes and the root nodeâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 15 Chance nodes â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 15 Endpointsâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 5 Branches â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 15 3. 2 3. 3 3. 4 3. 5 4. 0 5. 0 Payoff valuesâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 16 Outcome probabilityâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦. 17 Expected value â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 18 Decision tree analysis â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 0 Glossary â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦ 23 More to Explore â⬠¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦Ã¢â¬ ¦.. 26 iii Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Preface Decision trees find use in a wide range of disparate applications. They are used in many different disciplines including medical diagnosis, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, game theory, engineering, and data mining. Despite this trend surprisingly few good, clear introductions to basic decision tree concepts are available. The present work attempts to meet that need by offering a concise primer for novices. Acknowledgments The author gratefully acknowledges instructor Meryl Natches, CEO of TechProse, for invaluable editing, guidance, and patience. The author also thanks the Technical Communication 1 class participants at UC Berkeley Extension during the spring semester 2007 for review and comments. Rosana Francescato tested the material for clarity and provided helpful feedback in the development of this project. CJ Kalin, Ph. D. , introduced me to the decision tree method in a Project Risk Management class at UC Berkeley Extension. Her real-world examples demonstrated how the decision trees technique helps solve complex project management problems. Despite the aforementioned contributions the author accepts responsibility for any errors or omissions herein. Please send feedback to rafael@projectsphinx. com All trademarks are the property of their respective holders. Microsoftà ® , Excelà ®, and Wordà ® are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation Rev. 5, 04/05/07 à © 2007, Rafael Olivas v Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals v Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 1. 0 Introduction A decision tree is a method you can use to help make good choices, especially decisions that involve high costs and risks. Decision trees use a graphic approach to compare competing alternatives and assign values to those alternatives by combining uncertainties, c osts, and payoffs into specific numerical values. If you are a project manager, business analyst, or a project decision-maker, this primer is for you. If you are interested in cognitive science, artificial intelligence, data mining, medical diagnosis, formal problem solving, or game theory, this primer provides an introduction to basic concepts of decision tree analysis. 1. 1 Advantages of using decision trees Decision trees offer advantages over other methods of analyzing alternatives. They are: â⬠¢ Graphic. You can represent decision alternatives, possible outcomes, and chance events schematically. The visual approach is particularly helpful in comprehending sequential decisions and outcome dependencies. â⬠¢ Efficient. You can quickly express complex alternatives clearly. You can easily modify a decision tree as new information becomes available. Set up a decision tree to compare how changing input values affect various decision alternatives. Standard decision tree notation is easy to adopt. Revealing. You can compare competing alternativesââ¬âeven without complete informationââ¬âin terms of risk and probable value. The Expected Value (EV) term combines relative investment costs, anticipated payoffs, and uncertainties into a single numerical value. The EV reveals the overall merits of competing alternatives. Complementary. You can use decision trees in conjunction with other project management tools. For example, the decision tree method can help evaluate project schedules. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ 1. 2 About this primer This primer offers an introduction to basic decision tree analysis. After studying this material for an hour, most users will be able to understand and apply decision tree analysis to solve simple and even moderately complex decision problems. You can readily construct and analyze simple decision trees such as those found in this primer with pen, paper, and a calculator. However, a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel can dramatically facilitate setting up and modifying decision trees. A number of other software applications are also available. These range from low-cost Microsoft Excel plug-ins to more expensive dedicated applications. For the purposes of this primer, a pen, paper, and calculator are sufficient. 1 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 1. 3 To use this primer You can use this primer in several ways. If you prefer to get started immediately with drawing and using decision tree notation, then begin with the Decision Scenario, an exercise that puts you in the role of using a decision tree in step-by-step fashion. If you are more comfortable learning by first seeing how a process works, then start with Basic Concepts. Whichever way you begin, make sure to review both of these sections. The Glossary defines underlined terms. After you review the concepts and use the scenario exercise, you can find external references in More to Explore. Icons indicate items of special interest: â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ Example Exercise Note Tip 2 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 0 Decision Scenario Consider the following scenario. Really Big Ideas, Inc. a small company that develops inventions for the consumer market, has recruited you as a consultant to make a recommendation on a critical business decision. At 10:00 a. m. , you meet Adam Smith, the Vice President in charge of product development. Smith expresses his wish for an outside opinion on a decision the company must make soon. You read "Decision Tree" in category "Essay examples" Your job is to supply such an informed opinion. Smith tells you that a short meeting will provide all the information needed and introduce the project managers for two possible (and competing) products. As Smith ushers you into a conference room he also mentions that he expects your analysis by 11:00 a. m. , scarcely an hour from now! You are given pen, paper, and a calculator. At 10:05 a. m. , you and Smith enter a small meeting room. Smith explains that Really Big Ideas has a three-month window of opportunity to develop a new product using new pattern recognition software the company recently created. Surprisingly, the software adapts easily to different applications. Really Big Ideas only has the resources and time to develop one of two projects, or to develop none. Project Managers Aisha Ali and Ben Bertrand arrive. After brief introductions, Aisha Ali launches her pitch. She says that a smoke and fire detector is the best project to make. The detector goes beyond ordinary smoke detectors. It can detect flames as well as smoke. It will cost $100,000 to develop, and if it succeeds the Business Analysis department says it will generate revenue of $1,000,000. Not to be outdone, Ben Bertrand announces that a motion detector device is the best project to develop. The motion detector, which uses conventional household lighting, will only cost $10,000 to develop. He adds that the analysts expect such a device to generate $300,000 in revenue. Smith asks if you have any questions, so you carefully ask about the chances for success. Both project managers agree that Samiksha Singh, the Director of the Business Analysis department, has that information. Smith initiates a conference call with Samiksha Singh. Singh informs the meeting that the smoke and fire detector has a 50% chance of success, and that the motion detector has an 80% chance of success. Smith thanks all the participants and ends the meeting. It is now 10:30 a. . Smith announces that heââ¬â¢ll return within the hour to see if you have decision analysis. Smith leaves you with your notes, paper, pen, and a calculator. Can you help Really Big Ideas to decide which product, if either, to develop? How can you evaluate the alternatives in a measurable way given the various uncertainties involved? You can use a decision tree to describe and then to evaluate the decision alternatives. 3 D ecision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1 Describe decision alternatives and outcomes You can now start your decision tree. A decision tree is a diagram of nodes and connecting branches. Nodes indicate decision points, chance events, or branch terminals. Branches correspond to each decision alternative or event outcome emerging from a node. 2. 1. 1 The first decision (root node) Start by drawing a small square on the left side on a piece of paper. This is called the root node, or root. The root node represents the first set of decision alternatives. For each decision alternative draw a line, or branch, extending to the right from the root node. Allow a generous amount of space between the lines to add information. Some branches may split into additional decision alternatives or outcomes. You can also ââ¬Å"bendâ⬠branches so that the lines line up horizontally. These techniques make keeping track of alternatives easier. (See figure 2. 1. 1) Label each branch with the decision and its associated investment cost. Write that the smoke and fire detector will cost (-$100,000) to develop. Similarly, write that the motion detector will cost (-$10,000) to develop. Write $0 at the third branch corresponding to the alternative to develop neither product. Tip Show the costs as negative values since they represent a ââ¬Å"preliminary loss. Any future gross revenue will be offset by costs. Showing costs as negative values simplifies the calculation of payoff. Figure 2. 1. 1 The root node is the small square at the left. Branch lines emerge from the root towards the right. Each branch represents one decision alternative. 4 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1. 2 Chance outco mes In the Really Big Ideas scenario each product development effort can have one of two outcomes: each project can either succeed or fail. Draw a small circle, or chance node, at the end of the branch for the smoke and fire detector. Draw a chance node at the end of the branch for the motion detector. From each chance node draw two branches towards the right; one branch represents success and the other represents failure. Label the branches accordingly. Figure 2. 1. 2 Chance nodes, shown as small circles, lead to two or more possible outcomes. Draw each outcome as a branch from the chance node. 2. 1. 3 Endpoints and payoffs You can now complete all the branches with endpoints, since there is no further branch information to represent. Draw a small triangle ( ) at the end of each branch to represent the endpoint. Write the payoff value at the endpoint. In business applications the payoff is usually a monetary value equal to the anticipated net profit, or return on investment. Net profit (or net loss) is the difference between the investment cost and the total revenue. A positive value indicates a net profit, while a negative value indicates a net loss. In other words, if revenue exceeds investment, then the effort is profitable. Otherwise the effort is a net loss, or a breakeven result if the payoff is zero. For Really Big Ideas, a successful smoke and fire detector project will earn $1,000,000 in gross revenue. The resulting net profit therefore equals the sum of the gross revenue and the investment cost. Recall that cost can be represented as a negative number. The calculation is therefore $1,000,000 + (-$100,000) = $900,000 net profit, or payoff. Write $900,000 at the end of the branch for success of the smoke and fire detector. 5 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals However, if the smoke and fire detector project is not successful, then no revenue will be earned and all the investment will be lost. The calculation for this event is $0 + (-$100,000) = (-$100,000), a loss or negative payoff. Write (-$100,000) at the end of the branch for failure of the smoke and fire detector. Perform a similar calculation for the success and failure payoffs for the motion detector. Your results should show a $290,000 payoff if successful, and a (-$10,000) payoff (a loss) if it fails. Write these values at the endpoints of their respective branches. The payoff for the decision branch to not develop either project is simply $0. See figure 2. 1. 3. Figure 2. 1. 3 Use endpoints, shown by small triangles with one point connecting to the branch, to indicate that there are no further outcomes or decisions to consider. Write payoff values for each terminated branch to the right of the endpoints. This concludes the basic structure of the decision tree for the Really Big Ideas alternatives. We can now incorporate the likelihood of success and failure and use that to analyze the decision alternatives. 6 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 2 Incorporate uncertainty (outcome probability) You can now incorporate the relative outcome probability, or uncertainty, associated with each chance event. You can express probabilities as percentages or as decimal fractions. This primer adopts the common decision tree convention of using decimal fractions from (0. 0) to (1. 0), in which (1. 0) = 100%. In the Really Big Ideas scenario, the smoke and fire detector has a 50% chance of success, and therefore a 50% chance of failure. Therefore, write (0. 5) on the success branch and (0. 5) on the failure branch. The motion detector has an 80%, or (0. 8) chance of success, and therefore a 20%, or (0. 2) chance of failure. Write these values on their respective branch lines. See figure 2. 2. Figure 2. 2 Write the probability for each outcome branch. You can express a probability as a decimal fraction in parentheses. Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 3 Find the expected value (EV) You are now ready to evaluate the relative merits of each decision alternative. Expected value (EV) is the way to combine payoffs and probabilities for each node. The higher the EV, the better a particular decision alternative on average when compared to the other alternatives in the decision tree. You calculate the EV for any chance node by summing together all the EVs for each branch that is connected to the node. The general formula for calculating EV at any chance nodes is given as: EVchance node = EVbranch1 + EVbranch2 + . . + EVbranchN â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ In the Really Big Ideas scenario, if the smoke and fire detector is successful, the EV is the payoff (profit) multiplied by its probability, or $900,000 x 0. 5 = $450,000. The EV if the fire detector project fails is (-$100,000) x 0. 5 = (-$50,000). The EV for the decision to develop the smoke and fire detector (incorporating both success and failure) is the sum of the EV for all the eventualities. EVnode = (EVsuccess + EVfailure) = $450,000 + (-$50,000) = $400,000. Similarly, the EV for the decision to develop the motion detector is given by EV = ($390,000 x 0. 8) + [(-$10,000) x 0. ] = $310,000. Figure 2. 3. Expected value (EV) is the sum of all the combined payoffs and pro babilities for each chance node. â⬠¢ Write the EV for each node near that node. See figure 2. 3. 8 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals The smoke and fire detector project has a higher EV than the motion detector. You can report the analysis with these summarized presentation points: â⬠¢ The smoke and fire detector is the better project to develop, despite the greater risk. The significantly larger anticipated profits make the risk more acceptable than the competing project. The motion detector is less risky, but also significantly less profitable. With the given profit expectations the project does not overcome the expected value of its rival project. Exercise Try different possible payoff and/or probability combinations to raise the EV for the motion detector. What combinations would make this EV superior to the smoke and fire detector? Note Do not confuse EV with any particular payoff amount that would be earned for any specific instance of the gambit . EV is only the average payoff if the trial were repeated many times. Many real-world decisions do not have the advantage of being repeatable. Nevertheless, probabilities can still be assigned to outcomes based on information from expert judgment and other means of risk analysis. Such methods are beyond the scope of this primer. For the purposes of this primer assume that the examples use realistic probabilities from reliable sources. 9 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 4 Add a sequential decision Consider the following information, which continues the Really Big Ideas decision scenario. Vice President Adam Smith of Really Big Ideas, Inc. calls you the following day. He reports that the company has learned new information that may affect the decision. Smith wants to know if you can prepare a new analysis using the new information. Smith tells you that the proposed smoke and fire detector must pass an Underwriters Laboratories (UL) safety certification before it can be sold. (Such certification is not necessary for the motion detector). Director Samiksha Singh has interviewed a UL inspector and learned how the certification process works. Singh has modified the marketing and success estimates based on the new information. She now reports the following: â⬠¢ A commercial grade certification will result in $1,000,000 sales (as originally expected). However, the likelihood of obtaining the coveted commercial certification is only 30% due to the stringent standard. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ A less-stringent residential grade certification is 60% likely, but would result in only $800,000 sales. There is a 10% chance that the smoke and fire detector will not pass any certification test. In this caseââ¬âa complete failureââ¬âthe company will lose the initial $100,000 investment cost. Underwriters Laboratories charges a $5,000 non-refundable fee for the certification application. â⬠¢ Your job is to construct and then evaluate a new decision tree based on this new information. . 4. 1 Construct a decision tree Begin the revised decision tree at the left and through the first chance event nodes as in the prior version. The results for the motion detector and no project remain unchanged. The chance node for the successful development of the smoke and fire detector can now lead to a new decision node; represent this new decision node wi th a small square. The decision at this node is whether to submit an application for the UL safety certification. There are only two choices possible: submit an application, at an investment of $5,000, or do not submit an application. You may guess that failure to submit the application after successful project development does not make good sense, and this is correct. The decision tree shows that your guess is correct. You ââ¬Å"resolveâ⬠decision nodes in terms of the branch with the highest EV. Therefore a ââ¬Å"failure to submit applicationâ⬠branch does not play a role in the value of its decision node. The ââ¬Å"submit applicationâ⬠path leads to one of three possible outcomes: commercial grade, residential grade, or no certification. The probability of each outcome is 0. 3, 0. 6, and 0. 1 respectively. Write these probabilities on their respective branches. 0 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals The commercial grade outcome terminates with a payoff calculated as follows: revenue + development cost + application cost = $1,000,000 + (-$100,000) + (-$5,000) = $895,000. In a similar way, the residential grade outcome terminates with this payoff: $800,000 + (-$100,000) + (- $5,000) = $695,000. If the device does not earn a certification it cannot be sold with a UL certification. This situation dooms its marketing prospects to no revenue and a loss of the investments. In that case: $0 + (-$100,000) + (-$5,000) = (-$105,000), a loss. Write each payoff near the matching endpont as you calculate its value. See figure 2. 4. 1. Figure 2. 4. 1 This is an example of a sequential decision. The original root decision leads to at least one other decision on some branch path. The second decision leads to further chance events. Add decision nodes representing how they must occur in time on a branch path. A decision tree can help you keep track of many such sequential decisions. 2. 4. 2 Recalculate the expected values You are now ready to find the EV for the chance event node representing the UL safety certification. Recall that for any chance node, EVchance node = [EVbranch1 + EVbranch2 + . . . +EVbranchN]. 11 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Therefore, ($895,000 x 0. 3) + ($695,000 x 0. 6) + [(-$105,000) x 0. 1] = $675,000. This chance node is thus resolved or collapsed into a single EV, in this case $675,000. Now use this amount as the payoff value for the ââ¬Å"submit applicationâ⬠branch of its decision node. You may notice that the ââ¬Å"donââ¬â¢t submit applicationâ⬠branch also can have an expected value, in this case (-$100,000). You resolve a decision node in terms of the greatest decision branch EV and disregard any lower values. Use double-hatch marks to indicate a branch from a decision node that is disregarded. You can now calculate the chance event node for the smoke and fire detector development outcome. The input from the ââ¬Å"successâ⬠branch is $675,000 x 0. 5. And the input from the ââ¬Å"failureâ⬠branch remains at: (-$100,000) x 0. 5. Therefore, the EV = ($675,000 x 0. 5) + (-$100,000 x 0. 5) = $287,500. See figure 2. 4. 2. Figure 2. 4. 2 The calculation in figure 2. 4. 2 is an example of successively calculating the expected values from endpoints back through branches and nodes. Such a rollback calculation takes the EV from a given node and uses that value as a payoff input for the prior node. 12 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 4. 3 Analyze the changes The motion detector has now become the better choice. The new information dramatically reduces the EV for the smoke and fire detector. What is the main reason for the lower EV? One million dollars revenue is still possible with a commercial grade safety certification, but the likelihood of that outcome is only 30%. Substantial revenue of $800,000 with a 60% outcome is still possible with a residential grade certification. However, that is not enough to offset the resulting lower EV at this node. Since you must use this EV as the input for the development outcome chance node (with only a 50% chance of success) the overall EV for the smoke and fire detector falls below that of the motion detector. The certification process itself is not the culprit in reducing the EV for the smoke and fire detector. The $5000 investment cost barely affects the EV calculations. The small chance of no certification is also only a small factor. Instead, the main reason is the relatively modest probability of obtaining the optimal commercial certification. This lowered probability multiplied by the anticipated revenue significantly lowers the overall EV for that branch. Even if the probability of obtaining a commercial-grade certification is increased to 50% the resulting EV is still less than that for the motion detector. This analysis suggests two main factors that readily affect the EV for the smoke and fire detector. One factor is anticipated revenue. The other is the chance of obtaining the optimal commercial-grade certification. How much would either factor need to improve in order to make the smoke and fire detector the better decision? You can confidently summarize your report to Really Big Ideas with these presentation points: â⬠¢ The smoke and fire detector is now significantly more risky since greater uncertainty exists in knowing which certification grade may be obtained. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ The smoke and fire detector profits are also potentially lessened, especially if a commercial grade certification is not obtained. Together, this combination of greater risk and potentially fewer profits from a less desirable market significantly reduces the attractiveness of the smoke and fire detector project. Exercise Try different possible payoff and/or probability combinations to raise the EV for the smoke and fire detector. What combinations make this EV superior to the motion detector? 13 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 3. 0 Basic Concepts You can use the decision tree method by mastering a few basic concepts. Use this section to become familiar with these ideas and notation. If you are using this primer for the first time you will probably find the easiest path is to review the material in the following order. 3. 1 3. 2 3. 3 3. 4 3. Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) Payoff values Outcome probability Expected value Decision tree analysis 3. 1 Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) Any decision includes two or more decision alternatives. Any decision alternative might lead to multiple possible outcomes. One outcome may depend on another, a situation called dependent uncertainty. Decisions may also be linked in a sequence, a condition called sequ ential decisions. Use decision tree notation to keep these myriad paths and possibilities easy to understand and compare. Figure 3. 1 14 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Example In figure 3. 1 a company is evaluating whether to invest $1M in a project immediately or wait for a marketing report that may affect project development. Two other alternatives are also possible: invest $1M in a fixed yield bond or do nothing. A fixed-yield investment and doing nothing are examples of baseline alternatives: choices that can be used to compare the overall merits of the decision alternatives. 3. 1. 1 Decision nodes and the root node Small squares identify decision nodes. A decision tree typically begins with a given ââ¬Å"first decision. â⬠This first decision is called the root node. For example, the root node in a medical situation might represent a choice to perform an operation immediately, try a chemical treatment, or wait for another opinion. Draw the root node at the left side of the decision tree. 3. 1. 2 Chance nodes Small circles identify chance nodes; they represent an event that can result in two or more outcomes. In this illustration two of the decision alternatives connect to chance nodes. Chance nodes may lead to two or more decision or chance nodes. 3. 1. 3 Endpoints An endpoint, or termination node, indicates a final outcome for that branch. Small triangles identify endpoints. Show an endpoint by touching one point of the triangle to the branch it terminates. 3. 1. 4 Branches Lines that connect nodes are called branches. Branches that emanate from a decision node (and towards the right) are called decision branches. Similarly, branches that emanate from a chance node (and towards the right) are called chance branches. In other words, the node that precedes a branch identifies the branch type. A branch can lead to any of the three node types: decision node, chance node, or endpoint. Tip Draw branches from the root node with a generous amount of space between the branches. As branches extend outwards they may spawn any number of additional nodes and branches. 15 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Start with enough room between branches to easily accommodate the alternatives and outcomes that may result. 3. 2 Payoff values The payoff value is equivalent to the net profit (or net loss) expected at the end of any outcome. Write payoff values at their respective branch endpoints. Although you can express payoff in various ways, it is common to use monetary units in most business applications. Payoff is the difference etween investment cost and gross revenue. This primer adopts the convention of indicating investment costs as negative values to simplify calculating payoff values. Payoff values can be positive or negative. Negative payoff values indicate a net loss. Tip Write the investment cost associated with a decision alternative on the branch. This helps keep the cost in mind when calculating the payoff values. Also write the inve stment cost as a negative value to show that it must reduce any projected gross revenue. Figure 3. 2 Example Figure 3. 2 shows the expected payoffs at two endpoints. The fixed-yield investment results in $1,050,000 revenue, and therefore a $50,000 payoff. The payoff for doing nothing is $0. The other branches lead to chance nodes at this stage of the decision tree. You can assign payoff values only after these chance nodes lead to endpoints. 16 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 3. 3 Outcome probability A chance node leads to two or more outcomes, each outcome represented by a new branch. As with a game of chance, an outcome has a particular probability of happening. The total of all outcomes for a given chance node must equal 100% (or 1. ). A standard decision tree convention expresses probabilities as decimal fractions in parentheses at the chance branches. Figure 3. 3 Example In Figure 3. 3, the decision alternative to develop a project immediately can lead to one of three outcomes. The company has determined that there is a 20% chance that the project can meet all the criteria for success in international and domestic m arkets, but a 50% chance that the project will only meet the criteria for the domestic market. In addition, is a 30% chance 17 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals hat the project will not meet enough criteria for either market as a result of insufficient information. The company can also wait for a marketing study before developing the project. The marketing information may help the company create a successful project. But the information may also suggest unfavorable conditions that the company probably cannot overcome. The company uses its best judgment and guess, with a 50% favorable and a 50% unfavorable outcome. The decision tree shows these probabilities as decimal fractions in parentheses on their respective chance branches. 3. 4 Expected value Expected value (EV) is a way to measure the relative merits of decision alternatives. The expected value term is a mathematical combination of payoffs and probabilities. You calculate the expected values after all probabilities and payoff values are identified. The goal of the calculations is to find the EV for each decision alternative emerging from the root node. For the purposes of this primer, the decision alternative with the highest EV is the best choice. See figure 3. 4. Although you can apply the formal definition of expected value, in practice you can calculate EV calculations by applying the following rules. To calculate EV, start from the endpoints and work back towards the root. An easy way to find expected values is to calculate an EV for each terminated branch, then each chance node and each decision node. â⬠¢ For a terminated decision branch, EV is equal to the payoff. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ For a terminated chance branch, EV is the product of its payoff and probability. For a chance node, EV is the sum of each chance branch payoff multiplied by the probability for that payoff. For a decision node, EV is the greater EV value of any decision branch. Mark the lower value EV branches with double-hatch marks to disregard these branch paths. Since the root node is also the first decision node, the decision alternative with the greater EV is the overall best decision. As the calculations are carried from right to left, use a ââ¬Å"resolvedâ⬠EV at any node type as the payoff ââ¬Å"inputâ⬠at the node closer to the root. â⬠¢ 18 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Figure 3. 4 Tip Start an EV calculation from the endpoint and then proceed from right to left. The EV for a node becomes the payoff ââ¬Å"inputâ⬠for the subsequent EV calculation to the left. For example, in figure 3. , use the EV for the topmost decision node (types of markets to enter) as an input to calculate the chance node (criteria outcomes). Example In figure 3. 4, calculate the EV for the decision alternative to develop the project by following the given EV rules: â⬠¢ Decision node (ââ¬Å"international and domestic marketingâ⬠vs. ââ¬Å"domestic marketing onlyâ⬠). The EV is the greatest value giv en by all the decision branches, $3,000,000. This value then becomes the payoff ââ¬Å"inputâ⬠for the next node to the left. â⬠¢ Chance node (ââ¬Å"all criteriaâ⬠vs. ââ¬Å"domestic criteria onlyâ⬠vs. ââ¬Å"not enough criteriaâ⬠). [$3,000,000 x 0. ] + [$500,000 x 0. 5] + [(-$1,000,000) x 0. 3] = EV = $550,000. 19 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals This value becomes the payoff ââ¬Å"inputâ⬠for this alternative when considering the root node. â⬠¢ By a similar calculation, the EV for the alternative to wait for the report before deciding whether or not to develop the project is EV = $750,000. This value becomes the payoff ââ¬Å"inputâ⬠for this alternative when considering the root node. The EV for the alternative to invest the capital in a fixed-yield investment is just the payoff value, EV = $50,000. The EV for doing nothing is EV = $0. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ 3. Decision tree analysis The EV at the root node shows that th e decision to wait for the marketing report is the best decision. This result may come as a surprise. You can better understand the result after calculating expected values. Example Before the decision tree in Figure 3. 4 is analyzed you may be tempted to assume that the decision to develop the project immediately is the better choice. After all, the project will only cost $1,000,000 instead of a rushed cost of $1,500,000. Furthermore, there are fewer complications to consider, like waiting to determine the potential for international distribution. The EV for the decision alternative to wait for the report is complicated by two major chance factors. One factor is that the company knows that waiting makes finding an international distributor more difficult than if the project begins immediately. The company has determined that the likelihood of finding an international distributor is less certain (by 50%) if they wait for the report. The other chance factor is the information in the marketing report. The company estimates that the marketing report has a 50% chance of delivering favorable data which will help project development. Two or more chance nodes directly connected in this way indicate a dependent uncertainty, a condition that can readily be evaluated through decision tree analysis. Another complication is that rushing development raises development costs by a third, to ($1,500,000), and this alone reduces the payoff for the international and domestic marketing by $500,000. The decision tree method requires probabilities for all chance outcomes. In this example, the successive chance outcomes of waiting for report results and then securing an international distributor reduce the EV along the branch path. But a similar analysis of the competing decision alternative reveals important information. Without the benefit of the marketing report the chances of ââ¬Å"getting it rightâ⬠for the 20 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals international market are fairly low, at 20%. This factor significantly weakens the value of that branch. This alternative is also risky; there is a 30% chance that the company will lose all investment costs. The absence of reliable market information means that the project may not meet criteria for success in any market. Figure 3. 5 The analyst can sum up the decision tree analysis with the following major presentation points and with the decision tree in figure 3. 5. â⬠¢ The international market potential is $3,000,000 in revenue, while the domestic market is only $500,000. â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ Immediate project development costs only $1,000,000. Waiting to develop the project results in rush costs, pushing the total to $1,500,000. Marketing information plays the most important role in the potential success of this project. In the absence of valid marketing data, the chance for success in the international market is poor (20%) and the chance for complete failure is sifnificant (30%). These risk factors significantly reduce the potential for product success. 21 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals â⬠¢ Waiting for the marketing report can complicate project development. There is a 50% chance that the report will be favorable enough to proceed. Waiting also reduces the chance (by 50%) for recruiting a distributor in time to capture the international market. However, these risk factors of waiting do not affect the chance of success as much as the absence of marketing data. Therefore the best decision, given the known assumptions, uncertainties, and information, is to wait for the results of the marketing report before deciding to develop the project. â⬠¢ Exercise If you havenââ¬â¢t done so already, review the Decision Scenario exercise. 22 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 4. 0 Glossary The terms given in this glossary can be applied for business applications and this primer. Other applications such as medicine, artificial intelligence, or general problem solving may use non-monetary value calculations. Figure 4. 0 Branch: A particular decision alternative or chance outcome is called a branch. A branch representing a decision alternative emanates from a decision node. A chance branch (chance outcome) emanates from a chance node. Branch path: A branch path is a series of connected branches leading from a decision node through any given endpoint. Chance branch (chance outcome): A chance branch is one of the possible outcomes emanating from a chance branch. In a decision tree two or more chance branches are lines drawn to the right from a chance node. Chance node, or chance event node: A chance node identifies an event in a decision tree where a degree of uncertainty exists. A chance node represents at least two possible outcomes. Chance nodes are shown by small circles in a decision tree. Cost: A cost is any monetary expense required for a particular decision alternative or that must be paid at a particular chance outcome. Typical cost examples are investments (on decision branches) and penalties (on chance branches). In this primer, investment costs are shown as negative values. 23 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Data mining: Data mining is a process that uses software to explore information stored in databases for trends and patterns. Decision alternative: Any decision involves a choice between two or more decision alternatives. In a decision tree, a branch emanating from a decision node represents each decision alternative. Decision branch: A decision branch represents a particular decision alternative. In a decision tree, two or more decision branches are lines drawn to the right from a decision node. Decision node: A decision node represents a location on a decision tree where a decision between at least two possible alternatives can be made. Decision nodes are indicated by small squares in a decision tree. Decision strategy: A decision strategy is a particular branch path in a decision tree and includes all the decisions and chance events along that branch path. A decision tree generally includes two or more possible decision strategies. One decision strategy is generally found to be the ââ¬Å"preferred decision strategyâ⬠since decision strategies can be compared by computing their respective expected values (EV). Decision tree: A decision tree is a diagram used to describe decision alternatives and chance events. Decision tree analysis: Decision tree analysis is the process of evaluating alternative decision alternatives emanating from the root node. The analysis requires calculating and then comparing expected values. The analysis can also involve making adjustments to probabilities and payoff values to determine how changes to those values may affect expected values. Decision tree notation: A set of graphic symbols and conventions used to describe elements in a decision tree. Commonly used decision tree notation includes decision nodes, chance nodes, endpoints, branches, and double-hatch marks. Dependent uncertainty: A dependent uncertainty is a condition whereby a chance event depends on a prior chance event. For example, if the chance of event ââ¬Å"Bâ⬠will occur depends on the chance that event ââ¬Å"Aâ⬠will occur, then some of the uncertainty associated with ââ¬Å"Bâ⬠depends on ââ¬Å"A. â⬠In a decision tree, a chance node that is directly connected to another chance node indicates a dependent uncertainty. Double-hatch marks: Double-hatch marks are a pair of small lines that are placed over a branch to indicate that particular branch is not to be considered in an expected value calculation. Endpoint: An endpoint is a node that terminates a branch (and also a branch path). In a decision tree, an endpoint is drawn as a small triangle, with one apex connected to the branch. The endpoint is the location where a payoff value is identified. A decision tree is ââ¬Å"terminatedâ⬠when all the branch paths result in an endpoint with a payoff value. Expected value: Expected value is a criterion for making a decision. Expected value is a mathematical term that combines the payoffs and probabilities of possible chance outcomes for a decision alternative. Technical note: The expected value represents the ââ¬Å"average payoff valueâ⬠expected if a 24 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals decision were to be repeated many times. The term depends on the relative likelihood of events occurring if the decision were repeated many times while the circumstances remain constant. Many real-world decisions do not have the advantage of being repeatable. Nevertheless, probabilities can still be assigned to outcomes based on information from expert judgment and other means of risk analysis. Such methods are beyond the scope of this primer. For the purposes of this primer assume that the examples use realistic probabilities from reliable sources. EV: EV is an abbreviation for expected value. Investment cost: An investment cost is the monetary amount to be allocated at a decision branch. In this primer, investment costs are shown as negative values. Node: A node is a symbol in a decision tree indicating decision alternatives, chance outcomes, or a branch termination. Payoff or payoff value: A payoff is a monetary amount that will be earned at the conclusion of a branch path. Payoff, also called net profit in business applications, is the difference between the costs and the gross revenue earned. A positive payoff is equivalent to a positive net profit. A negative payoff is equivalent to a net loss. Rollback or rollback calculation: Rollback is the process of successively calculating expected value by beginning at an endpoint and calculating subsequent expected values back towards the root node. Return on investment: Return on investment (ROI) is another term for payoff (or net profit or loss). Root node: The root node is the initial decision node from which a decision tree is established. Sequential decision: A sequential decision is a situation in which more than one decision may be required before a decision tree can be terminated. All but the simplest decision trees contain sequential decisions. Spreadsheet: A spreadsheet is a software application used for managing multiple calculations. Microsoft Excelà ® is the leading spreadsheet application on Windows and Mac OS operating systems. Termination node: A termination node is an endpoint. 25 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 5. 0 More to Explore Decision tree software spans low-cost spreadsheet plug-ins to server-mediated applications suites. Students and casual users may find the free trial offerings from Decision Support Services, Visionary Tools, or Lumenaut particularly useful. â⬠¢ Lumenaut Lumenaut is a Microsoft Excel plug-in. The company offers a free trial and a free student version. http://www. lumenaut. com/ â⬠¢ Salford Systems TreeNet for Windows is among other decision analysis products used for data mining in complex database systems. http://www. salford-systems. com/ Treeplan. com (Decision Support Services) TreePlan is a low cost Microsoft Excel plug-in that works on Windows or Macintosh. A free trial version is available for 15 days. The plug-in is $29, or can be purchased as part of a low cost suite of products. http://www. treeplan. com/ Vanguard Software Corporation Vanguard Studio is a customizable software tool aimed at business development. Single user licenses begin at $1,000. The company web site also offers a short introduction to decision trees. http://www. vanguardsw. com/ Visionary Tools Occamââ¬â¢s Tree is a stand-alone application (Windows-only). This small German company offers a free trial version and a single license for $88. http://www. visionarytools. com/ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ â⬠¢ You can find other information on decision trees and related decision How to cite Decision Tree, Essay examples Decision Tree Free Essays Trees are useful tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can explore options, and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Tree or any similar topic only for you Order Now This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different strategies, projects or investment opportunities, particularly when your resources are limited.How to Use the Tool You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square to represent this on the left hand side of a large piece of paper, half way down the page. From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write a short description of the solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts. At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square.Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes. Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank. Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.An example of the sort of thing you will end up with is shown in Figure 1: Once you have done this, review your tree diagram. Challenge each square and circle to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw them in. If necessary, redraft your tree if parts of it are too congested or untidy. You should now have a good understanding of the range of possible outcomes of your decisions. Evaluating Your Decision Tree Now you are ready to evaluate the decision tree.This is where you can work out which option has the greatest worth to you. Start by assigning a cash value or score to each possible outcome. Make your best assessment of how much you think it would be worth to you if that outcome came about. Next look at each circle (representing an uncertainty point) and estimate the probability of each outcome. If you use percentages, the total must come to 100% at each circle. If you use fractions, these must add up to 1. If you have data on past events you may be able to make rigorous estimates of the probabilities.Otherwise write down your best guess. This will give you a tree like the one shown in Figure 2: Calculating Tree Values Once you have worked out the value of the outcomes, and have assessed the probability of the outcomes of uncertainty, it is time to start calculating the values that will help you make your decision. Start on the right hand side of the decision tree, and work back towards the left. As you complete a set of calculations on a node (decision square or uncertainty circle), all you need to do is to record the result.You can ignore all the calculations that lead to that result from then on. Calculating The Value of Uncertain Outcome Nodes Where you are calculating the value of uncertain outcomes (circles on the diagram), do this by multiplying the value of the outcomes by their probability. The total for that node of the tree is the total of these values. In the example in Figure 2, the value for ââ¬Ënew product, thorough developmentââ¬â¢ is: 0. 4 (probability good outcome) x $1,000,000 (value) =| $400,000| 0. 4 (probability moderate outcome) x ? 0,000 (value) =| $20,000| 0. 2 (probability poor outcome) x ? 2,000 (value) =| $400| +| $420,400| Figure 3 shows the calculation of uncertain outcome nodes: Note that the values calculated for each node are shown in the boxes. Calculating the Value of Decision Nodes When you are evaluating a decision node, write down the cost of each option along each decision line. Then subtract the cost from the outcome value that you have already calculated. This will give you a value that represents the benefit of that decision.Note that amounts already spent do not count for this analysis ââ¬â these are ââ¬Ësunk costsââ¬â¢ and (despite the emotional cost) should not be factored into the decision. When you have calculated these decision benefits, choose the option that has the largest benefit, and take that as the decision made. This is the value of that decision node. Figure 4 shows this calculation of decision nodes in our example: In this example, the benefit we previously calculated for ââ¬Ënew product, thorough developmentââ¬â¢ was $420,400. We estimate the future cost of this approach as $150,000.This gives a net benefit of $270,400. The net benefit of ââ¬Ënew product, rapid developmentââ¬â¢ was $31,400. On this branch we therefore choose the most valuable option, ââ¬Ënew product, thorough developmentââ¬â¢, and allocate this value to the decision node. Result By applying this technique we can see that the best option is to develop a new product. It is worth much more to us to take our time and get the product right, than to rush the product to market. And itââ¬â¢s better just to improve our existing products than to botch a new product, even though it costs us less.Key Points Decision trees provide an effective method of decision making because they: * Clearly lay out the problem so that all options can be challenged. * Allow us to analyze the possible consequences of a decision fully. * Provide a framework to quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them. * Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses. As with all decision making methods, decision tree analysis should be used in conjunction with common sense ââ¬â decision trees are just one important part of your decision making tool kit. How to cite Decision Tree, Papers beulahfoster198274http://www.blogger.com/profile/09428894696693754939noreply@blogger.com0